Democratic Fragility, Democratic Resilience

Dave Clark

Binghamton University

August 22, 2023

Democratic Fragility

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Democracy is fragile to the extent it relies on broadly held agreement that:

  • the rules of democracy are fixed and not up for debate.

  • losing elections is ok.

The rules of game

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democratic consolidation is when a “particular system of institutions become the only game in town, when no one can imagine acting outside the democratic institutions, when all the losers want to do is to try again within the same institutions under which they have just lost.” (Przeworski 1991, 26)

Democracy and Losers

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Democratic governance makes losing acceptable because losers’ rights are protected, and because losers will have future chances to contest elections.

“Democracy is a system in which parties lose elections … It is only when there are parties that lose and when losing is neither a social disgrace nor a crime that democracy flourishes.” (Przeworski 1991, p 10)

Democratic Reslience

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Democracy is resilient if/when:

  • masses can organize and mobilize; even the threat of mobilization is powerful. Restrictions on assembly are especially dangerous (curfews, SoEs).

  • institutions can resist individuals to protect the “rules of the game.” Courts likely have to be central to this.

Fragility

Challenging the Rules

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Challenges to the “rules of the game” include:

  • elected leaders try to extend and overstay their terms.

  • leaders/parties try to change rules about citizenship, suffrage, or absentee voting to their advantages.

  • governments limit how civilians can oppose changes to the rules, eg through repression, states of emergency, curfews.

Leaders trying to Overstay their Terms

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Versteeg et al. (2020) measure leaders’ attempts to overstay their terms in office since 2000; they identify 234 elected terms of which there are:

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Attempts to Overstay
Attempts Successes Failures
59 34 25

Leaders trying to Overstay their Terms

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They identify several strategies by which leaders have sought to evade term limits:

  • amending the constitution (China, Colombia, Belarus, Rwanda)
  • using courts to invalidate term limits (rare, but successful)
  • choosing faithful successors they can control (e.g. Putin, Medvedev)
  • delay elections citing instability

Manipulating Electoral Rules & Citizenship (MERC)

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Attempts to change who can vote have proliferated since 2010; the MERC data (Foote, 2023) show these efforts are frequent in democracies.

MERC Events 1990-2018
Attempts Successes Failures
265 173 48

Challenging the Rules

Repression

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Though non-democratic states are the usual focus of repression studies, democratic governments use repressive tactics and threats as well.

  • Threats and bans are common methods, as are arrests.

  • Media and political opponents/rivals are common targets.

Resilience

Protests over Leaders

Efforts to change the rules and protest aimed at removing leaders or governments are increasing. There’s some evidence protests are effective in stopping such challenges.

Evidence of democratic resilience

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  • Attempts to overstay terms happen across regime types.

  • Attempts in democracies are considerably more likely to fail.

  • Democracies are most at risk for manipulation laws.

  • Manipulation efforts succeed at alarming rates, but face more resistance in stronger democracies.

Democracy and Manipulation

Evidence of democratic resilience

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  • Organized protests deter overstaying attempts and increase their chances of failure; organized protests are more frequent in democracies than in other regimes.

  • Organized protests are associated with failed manipulation attempts.

Resistance to States of Emergency?

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  • Outside the pandemic, SoEs are common way for leaders to limit dissent. Organized protest movements play an interesting role in SoE declarations.

  • Organization refines purpose and method of protests, and creates costs for repression. [This may mean organizers attract repression prior to protests.]

Organized Protests & SoEs

What Drives Resilience?

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  • What mechanisms underlie democratic resistance to assaults on democracy?

  • What makes democracies able to normalize the “rules of the game” and defend them if necessary?

  • What mobilizes protesters in defense of democracy?

  • Does elite rhetoric signal challenges to the rules, changes in norms?

  • Are restrictions on protest, assembly a warning?

Contact

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Thanks - comments appreciated.

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